Putinia, Putonia, Putinonia, Putonian {pronounce a state of dictatorship under the self-illusion of recreating a status quo by force to impose an ideology on others}
Russia was a reflective nation. This is the DNA of Russian society, it manifests itself in its culture, politics and society. There is a constant balancing of war and peace. Today, Russia is at war. War against Ukraine, war against Europe, war with itself.
First, if the Ukrainians are defeated, defeating the Ukrainians in the battlefield will lead to the downfall of Putin’s empire. The Russian winning the war will not guarantee the survival of the regime in Moscow.
The war of aggression against the Ukraine triggers deep seated fears of the Europeans about the Russians. The past atrocities of the Red Army of 1944/45 particularly against the Polish, Ukrainians and others in Eastern Europe are still deeply embedded in the psyche of most older generation of Europeans. And now, the atrocities are replaying in color daily.
The murder of the Ukrainian civilian population by Russian forces are unparalleled in post second world war Europe. The invasion of Ukraine only reaffirm these old fears and has broken the Russian dream to join the European Union. Moscow is prepare to break with the west and a geographical divide is a reality.
Secondly, Russia`s tactical objectives of Putonian conquests are to capture the economic heartlands of the Ukraine. Ukraine is the Kuwait of today. It is smaller than Russia but has considerable wealth as a nation. The eastern part of the Ukraine produces most of the commodities making Ukraine the Kuwait of the East.
The comparison to Stalin’s extermination policy of the Ukraine is not without merits looking at the targeting of of Ukraine infrastructure in the context of the tactics used by the Russians. History does repeat itself.
However, the Russian destruction of the economic wealth of the Ukraine undermines the leap forward for the European Union as the new powerhouse in global trade, diplomacy and now, defense. In response to the Russian threat Europe is now rearming. The Russian failures is on a few fronts. Both, the western alliances, and the Russians underestimated the Ukrainian leadership, and commitment. Straight out of Clausewitz, the Putonian regime in Moscow miscalculated the resolute response by the allies. The allies did not as predict collapse but are never as close as before presenting a united front.
The regime in Moscow fails to grasp the very basic principles of democracy. It is messy, chaotic infighting, trials and errors, failures, and success but when democracy is threatened the Europeans and NATO close shoulders. A fact acknowledged by the Putonian regimes foreign minister.
The third miscalculation is the war costs. The cost of economic destruction, lives lost and post-bellum medical and societal recovery are often underestimated by war planners. To bury and mourn the thousands of young men and woman resting in the soil of the Ukraine, including Russians, does not overlook the psychological effect it has on the Russian souls.
The greater costs to society are the post-conflict issues of damaged bodies lost to the economy. The hate it creates against the Russian, the resentment to deal with the Russians, the loss of identity and trust. The Russian currency is having a free-fall. If Putin wanted to avoid a repeat of 1991 and the collapse of a currency a War sure has heck will not help the stability of the economy.
One of the arguments constantly in use by Putonian mouthpieces of a deprived ideology is that Russians fear the West wants to wipe out the Russian heritage. The genetically engrained distrust by the Russians is contextual wrong. Russia is insignificant in the global domain. Putonian despite geographical presence, economic and natural wealth is in the eyes of the allies, a dinosaur. The war in the Ukraine is a war about resources.
The other argument is the preservation of culture. But, “kulturyna” has not so many takers with Moscow’s elite. Whereas the Putonian regime breaches the preservation of Russian culture, the children of the regime party in London, Paris, Bali, Phuket, Dubai, Ibiza, and other hot spot of the Russian elites. Now if you ever been to Sverdlovsk, the dacha on the Black Sea, Paris, Berlin, New York or Dubai have not to worry.
One of the assumption of the Russians is that the West wants to wipe out the Russian heritage. The genetically engrained distrust by the Russians is contextual wrong.
Whereas the Putonian regime breaches the preservation of Russian culture, the children of the regime party in London, Paris, Bali, Phuket, Dubai, Ibiza, and other spot of the Russian elites.
The children of mother Russia dying in trenches as the forefathers have done, captured in grotesque dances of deaths when Ukraine precision ammunition hits the mud holes with hundling, freezing Russian kids in them. 200.000 or whatever the number is, for what?
The Putonian world vision to be in the pages of history comes at a price, usually written in blood and tears of others. The war in Ukraine is that war of heroes and tears for Russia and the Ukraine.
Part of the post-communist, Soviet, KGB mentality that sees Russia to return to its former glory, if ever there was such an illusion is anchored in the ideology of the Soviets. Killing was its business. Now the attitudes by the Putonian regime in Moscow has returned.
The Stalinist regime, the post war suppression of the Ukraine and the other Soviet satellites, the war in Afghanistan, the near nuclear holocaust, the empty food shelves in the 1990’s and the collapse of the Soviet Union were the glory days of Russia. That was the Russian reality and misunderstanding is ignoring reality.
But besides this being a Putin folly, why would the West bother to invade Russia by military means if they can economically, scientifically, politically just outrun the Russians? But, the western narrative of Putin wants to resurrect the Russian empire is as illusionary as is the Russian pipedream invading the Ukraine. Sadly, a solution even if Russia sues for peace is unlikely for the next two decades. We are at War.
Russia slide from Great Power, to declining state, to a pariah state bottom. The old Russia with its deep sense of history, culture and greatness is gone. Putonia is born. A fantasy as much as Trumps attempt to reset the American clock. It failed and so will Putin. The country who has major challenges from dealing with corruption visible in the lack of equipment and supplies for the army, the explosion of its prime submarine the Kursk, the criminal empire of organized crime within Russia is destroying the country from within.
Some argue Putin’s war is resetting the internal clock of Mother Russia. If an external war and officials falling out of window is the right way to go is to be seen. The curse of the experts. I argue that we understand very little what the pressures on the regime are. We assume the economic data was correct, we assume all is well in Moscow but voices on the fringe increasingly point out the internal pressures the regime faces. An external war does divert from the domestic challenges for the regime. Lessons here, experts get it regularly wrong. Listen to the voices of dissent.
Whereas vested western interests exist in the Russian Federation, the future impacts on the Russian economy will shift Russia to near poverty as the cost of the war quickly piles up. If your trade is directed towards Iran, Turkey, North Korea, and China, you might find the Trumpian isolation politics are as ineffective as the Putonian world domination.
Fourth, the biggest misjudgment is the so-called winner on the battlefield are realistically often the strategic loser. History is full of failed assumptions. The German ‘Blitz’ targeting the UK utterly failed to force the British to capitulate to Germany. The UK blinded the German’s vision of quick victories which were experienced on the mainland facing the German juggernaut. The bombardment of civilian targets only hardened the resolve of the British people. The same applies to the Ukraine.
The allied carpet bombing failed to achieve its strategic objective to break the German´s will to fight. War production was at a height in 1944 throughout the two years of carpet bombings and mass casualties of civilians. The German war machine went on an overdrive, developing the cruise missile, jet fighters, the assault rifle, organic fuel to replace regular fuel, tanks and encryption which exceeded today´s encryption keys. Thankfully, Nazi Germany’s moral and ideological bankruptcy halted the advancement of these weapons.
The Ardennes offensive in 1944 was as ill-conceived as Putin’s current attack on Donbas. The lesson learnt here, even if you win, you will still lose. The Russian indiscriminate killing of Ukrainians backfired. So will the massive amount of losses by the Russians. Back in 1991, it was not the spooky organizations plotting the overthrow of the communists. It was the people who had enough that eventually will decide their own faith. Until this inflexion point is reached, we will bury the young. Russians and Ukrainians alike.
So right now, the Russians are drinking their own Kool-Aid. But soon the economic costs, continuous onslaught and critical loss of life on both sides will become a factor. Keep watch on the mothers, the Afghan veterans and the moderates in the ranks of the army. Once the FSB and other intelligence services wake up from their dreams, the Putonian empire will be on his last leg. Change in Russia, historically and contemporary always is violent. A peaceful transition is not likely.
The destruction of public infrastructure, schools, hospitals, killing of innocent, and war crimes committed by Russian forces will remove any good will towards the existing Russian state and its leaders in the Putin administration. This pariah status will last until societal changes in Russia appear. This hot war front line along the Russian borders will remain for at least two decades.
The Putonian wars are futile as they are real, and Europe is losing its virginity. The quicker the West realizes that the invaders need to be defeated in the field of battle by all means, the faster a new and more peaceful era will descend on us. In the meantime, the killing, the heroes and the river of tears will continue.
